The Dog Days Aren’t Over: A Summer Thought Experiment in the Pacific Division
The Offseason is Long and the Takes Are Weird
🌪️ Luka Signs, Knees Knock, Everyone Panics
Florence once declared the dog days over. But Luka Dončić’s routine, expected, absolutely inevitable $165 million extension says we’re still deep in them.
In the most significant non-move of the offseason, the Lakers signed Luka to a three-year, $165 million extension on August 2 (Yahoo Sports, 2025). It was the least surprising development imaginable, unless maybe you’re a Mavericks fans still holding out hope you’ll wake up from the Nico-trades-Luka nightmare. For now, though, he’s locked in with the team that finally got him out of Dallas and made him the face of their franchise.
And then because the basketball gods hate clean narratives Luka immediately crashed knees with a Finnish forward during a EuroBasket exhibition game on August 14. The entire country of Slovenia and worldwide Lakers fans held their breath. It was a moment of pure preseason clarity: Oh, right. We’re always one step away from collapse.
Luckily, it was minor: a knee contusion, no structural damage, and no withdrawal from national team duties (Yahoo Sports, 2025). It was also an early reminder of two inconvenient truths:
Luka is now the franchise centerpiece, in every possible way.
That centerpiece is also a person with a lot of basketball miles and exactly one meniscus per knee, depending on your source.
So yes, the Lakers now roll into the 2025–26 season with an alleged starting five that is part Larry O’Brien fan fiction:
Luka Dončić
Austin Reaves
LeBron James
Rui Hachimura
Deandre Ayton
That’s two basketball geniuses (Luka + LeBron), one fanbase favorite (Reaves), one guy who we’re not sure if he’s at his ceiling or his floor (Hachimura), and Ayton, who often looks like he is trying to connect to his NBA basketball motor through AOL dial-up.
The group is unquestionably talented and, as we’ll explore, maybe the most coherent unit in the Pacific Division. But coherence in August is a dangerous drug. The season hasn't started yet, everyone’s elbows, knees and toes work right now, and Lebron’s usual off seasons passive aggressive social media posts are just blips and not the gravitational pull around which half the league quietly reshuffles itself. Give it time.
Next, let’s look at what it cost to get here. Because while the starting five looks secure, the team did trade away one of its most reliable role players Dorian Finney-Smith to secure the depth pieces that now form the hope-drenched backbone of this roster. And that brings us to…
🧠 DFS for a Bag of Hope. The Devil’s Advocate Flip.
There’s a school of thought typically located near data analytics and a GM’s office that you don’t let go of a high-floor, proven role player for a bundle of guys who could be anything. Especially not in a title window.
And yet, Dorian Finney-Smith is gone.
The deal was simple: Keep DFS who is a career 36.2% three-point shooter with a defensive rating of 113.5 (StatMuse, n.d.) and keep your floor. Or, let him walk and assemble three deeply imperfect players with just enough narrative juice to sell to the fanbase.
Enter:
Smart has played fewer than 60 games each of the past two seasons and now brings both the potential of elite perimeter defense and the shot selection that will give Laker Nation severe heartburn.
Ayton has the physical tools to put up 20 and 10 while anchoring the paint, but is more likely to trigger JJ into an apoplectic fit.
LaRavia is still a mystery box, but a mystery box with size and a sweet jumper if the preseason hype videos (Jovan Buha I’m looking at you!) are telling the truth.
This is a classic NBA gamble. Do you want one guy you know helps you win 48 games, or three guys who might help you win 55 or crash you into the 38-win wall?
Finney-Smith was a known quantity. The trio? That’s a gamble. But when LeBron James is closer to the credits than the trailer, you don’t sell certainty…you sell hope. And hope, especially in L.A., still packs the arena.
📊 The Start-5 Power Matrix (Pacific Division Edition)
Before we declare the Lakers Pacific Division favorites again, let’s check the math. Not the real math. Not anything involving synergy or adjusted win shares. No, this is something much more valuable.
This is the Start-5 Power Matrix, an, ahem, proprietary system of completely subjective categories designed by a writer alone with her feelings in late August. These are not stats from Basketball Reference. These are hot-take temperature checks. They are closer to astrology than analytics, and that’s exactly what makes them pure.
🧩 The Matrix
🧾 Brief Analysis
Lakers: They have a real five. Luka and LeBron can carry a top-five offense. Reaves plays above his contract. Rui might be useful in every lineup or none. Ayton is a wildcard, but at least he is a known wildcard. Marcus Smart’s injury record might bite them, but for now, this is a tight, functional team that could still explode on either end.
Clippers: On paper, this looks like a Finals roster from a video game set in 2019. In reality, James Harden’s playoff resume is catching up to him like an unpaid parking ticket. Beal can’t stay healthy, Kawhi has to be treated like a porcelain antique, and Collins is just… there. In Zubac we trust. This could work, but the “could” is doing a lot.
Warriors: You can hear the desperate beat of the drum: maximize Steph. The energy is pure nostalgia. The results will not be. The front office is either asleep at the wheel or driving with a Magic 8-Ball duct-taped to the dashboard.
Kings: This is either a secret 50-win team or the most Sacramento team imaginable. Schröder, LaVine, and DeRozan all want the ball. Sabonis needs the ball. Keegan Murray is the only one who might move off the ball voluntarily. Free Sabonis!
Suns: Booker and… people. Dillon Brooks is the spiritual leader of this team. Chris Dunn is starting. Their head coach is Jordan Ott. I checked twice. If this were a sitcom pilot, the network would say no. This team is one viral Brooks meltdown away from oblivion.
🌾 Closing Thoughts
Here’s where we land: it’s the middle of August, Luka is (mostly likely?) healthy, and the Lakers are quietly locked in as they can be at this guessing game stage. They didn’t just keep their star, they rolled the dice on upside, depth, and the myth of unlocked potential.
Outside of the Clippers, game recognizes game, who remain relevant out of sheer inertia and star power, the rest of the Pacific looks like it's stuck in a group project no one wanted to lead, especially in the dead zone of the NBA calendar where every headline is a mirage.
The dog days aren’t done yet. But, just give it another 45 days, one preseason injury, and a few “Ben Simmons looks elite in open run” Instas and we’ll be back to caring way too much.
Until then, all we’ve got is heat, hype videos, and the slow, creaky hum of nothing happening.
📚 References
Heavy on Lakers. (2025, August 10). Lakers projected to win Pacific despite Clippers odds edge. https://heavy.com/sports/nba/los-angeles-lakers/conference-finals/
StatMuse. (n.d.). Dorian Finney-Smith career stats. https://www.statmuse.com/nba/player/dorian-finney-smith-9553/career-stats
StatMuse. (n.d.). Dorian Finney-Smith Defensive Rating. https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=dorian+finney-smith+defense+rating
Yahoo Sports. (2025, August 14). Luka Dončić has knee collision scare during EuroBasket. https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/article/luka-doncic-has-knee-collision-scare-during-eurobasket-exhibition-but-avoids-serious-injury-181846751.html
NBA Analysis. (2025, August 1). Clippers Projected Starting Lineup. https://nbaanalysis.net/la-clippers-2025-26-projected-starting-lineup-chris-paul-comes-off-the-bench-as-bradley-beal-starts/
ESPN. (2025). Golden State Warriors Depth Chart. https://www.espn.com/nba/team/depth/_/name/gs/golden-state-warriors
Sports Illustrated. (2025, August 15). Kings Hint at New Starting Lineup. https://www.si.com/nba/kings/sacramento-kings-news/kings-hint-at-new-look-starting-lineup-in-recent-instagram-post
Sports Illustrated. (2025, August 15). Insider Reveals Miami Trade for Kevin Durant. https://www.si.com/nba/suns/news/insider-reveals-miami-heat-trade-package-kevin-durant
Vegas Insider. (2025, August 10). NBA Pacific Division Odds. https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/pacific-division/
AI-assisted, human-approved, just like any good front office move. Monday was my sixth person off the bench: no minutes restriction, questionable shot selection, elite in transition. Every stat is sourced from primary data. Every take is mine.
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